Democrats squared off in a debate on CNN last week, but neither the participants nor the moderators focused much on the economy — much less on Moody’s 2020 Presidential Election Model, a well-regarded forecast which had just been released.
However, the economy is top of mind with voters, and the historically accurate Moody’s report has President Trump winning in almost all scenarios.
The first of Moody’s three models, the Pocketbook model, has Trump winning by a landslide 351 electoral votes to 187 (presuming a traditional Democratic candidate). The Pocketbook model focuses on three major variables: gas prices, home prices and real personal income.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, this is the most important model, primarily due to the long-term nature of its economic variables. Kitchen-table economics are the trial to most elections.
The Stock Market model is primarily based on — you guessed it — the markets. But it is flawed: Apparently these economists don’t like Trump, and it shows in their work.
Instead of being based on actual returns, it is based on assumptions by some “eco-ticians” that the GDP will fall to “multiyear lows” and the S&P 500 will fall 9 percent.
Yet the result remains the same: The Stock Market model projects the president will win, 289 electoral votes to 249.
The Unemployment model includes state-specific unemployment rates. It predicts a Trump victory of 332 electoral votes to 206. No surprise there, as the unemployment rate sits at a record-low 3.5 percent, and millions of Americans are back at work.
Moody’s final economic scenario surmises, “Democrats can still win if they are able to turn out the vote at record levels, but under normal turnout conditions, the president is projected to win.”