How to play it: Lady Demi EACH WAY.
Race 2 – 12:40PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Chris Waller hasn’t wasted much time in getting 7. Adana out to the mile. First up the four-year-old wasn’t even able to release the handbreak let alone work through his gears. It was a non-event. The way he travelled into the race suggested he’d have been fighting out the finish. He is a maligned horse and tipping a few punters after last start, even though luckless, vowed ‘never again’. He has found a very winnable race here though with 53.5kg on his back and Kerrin McEvoy steering. There isn’t a natural leader engaged – perhaps 5. Missybeel reverts back to her front-running style from last campaign – so Adana won’t want to be too far away. We do know he possesses a turn of foot and if this race turns into a sit-sprint he’ll be suited from the inside draw, hopefully having been stalking the leaders throughout.
Dangers: Missybeel has to be respected on the way this race likely plays out. That’s certainly not the only reason though, the five-year-old mare is knocking on the door for win number five. She was never clear over 2000m last time out, and like Costello, had a hard luck story to tell. Prior to that she ran second to Toryjoy. She has dropped back in trip without much success in the past but both occasions were at the end of her campaigns. 3. Cyber Intervention was too bad to be true second up. Forgive him that. Perhaps the two heavy track runs flattened him? Has trialled well since to suggest he is back on track. 2. Travancore relished the speed at Warwick Farm last time out but gets a very different set up here. 6. Plaisir will be out the back with Travancore but he’s even a fluker’s hope at $51.
How to play it: Adana WIN.
Race 3 – 1:15PM THE LUXURY NETWORK UP AND COMING STAKES (1300 METRES)
3. Lucicello’s blazing finish was again on display in the Listed Rosebud last start and although she went down to Dawn Passage, she was outstanding in defeat. Punters Intelligence reveals she ran the fastest last 600m of the entire meeting, clocking 33.43s. The grey filly was 1200m back to 1100m there too and Tommy Berry was given no alternative other than to flop her out the back from the wide draw. She started favourite and certainly wasn’t out of place at her first try in black type company. She can settle a pair closer out to 1300m from the middle draw and without the hectic pace, at least on paper, that she encountered last start. Interesting that Berry rides Lucicello over stablemate and race favourite 3. True Detective. There’s so much power about how she closes off her races and every time she steps out she goes to another level.
Dangers: Before looking at a few of the more obvious threats, 10. Pandano is better than a $101 pop! This Dundeel colt with Paul Perry was explosive on debut at Newcastle gapping handy Godolphin filly Bollywood before not handling the frantic pace of the Inglis Millennium at his second outing. His trials have been great. True Detective cost himself last start with a slow getaway in a race with little pressure up front. He then wanted to lay in half way down the straight. He beat himself, running home in a final 600m of 33.82s, still a length quicker than the next best. 5. Superium closed off well in the Rosebud and can only improve off that. 7. Deference was a smart all the way winner at Canterbury last start and will give another sight.
How to play it: Lucicello WIN.
Race 4 – 1:50PM GOLD COAST TURF CLUB TROPHY (2400 METRES)
5. Our Candidate is near impossible to ignore after decimating his rivals last time out. The blinkers have gone on his last two and it’s put the import’s mind on the job. The five-year-old beat Ilwendo out of sight last start, and that horse has since won comfortably himself at Eagle Farm. Brenton Avdulla took the short cuts up the fence but Our Candidate’s last 600m of 34.68s was a monster 8L faster than the next quickest in the race. That was even after Avdulla took the foot of the gas to salute the owners. It was a crossroads race for the stayer too, with Kris Lees threatening to tip him out and geld him if he didn’t perform but he could now earn himself a trial at some black type races over the carnival providing he holds his form. That’s really all he has to do to win this, hence the skinny odds.
Dangers: All that said about Our Candidate, don’t overlook 8. Gayatri. There is a real sense of timing about this mare out to 2400m fourth up. She didn’t fire a shot first and second up on wet tracks but was tracking into the race last start like she had a lot to offer, before finding a wall of horses which saw Hugh Bowman throttle down. The champion jockey has been unwavering in his loyalty to this stayer. 2. Scholarly still has those blinkers on (all five of his wins have been without them) but he is closing in on another victory. He’ll be hard to peg back from in front with Nash Rawiller again in the saddle. 1. Attention Run, suited this trip now, and 4. Desert Path, too bad to be true last start, look the best of the rest.
How to play it: Our Candidate WIN and 5,8,2 TRIFECTA.
Race 5 – 2:25PM DARLEY SILVER SHADOW STAKES (1200 METRES)
3. Libertini is one of the sharpest young sprinters in the country and whether she can stretch that brilliance to the mile, as she tracks a path to the Flight Stakes, is a query but not one we need to worry about first up over 1200m. The writing has been on the wall since her debut that this daughter of I Am Invincible was top class. She ran second to Bivouac in the G3 Kindergarten and clocked the fastest closing splits across the entire meeting. She put her rivals to the sword at her next two outings as was expected from her. She has trialled twice in readiness for her return and has gone to the line under double grip from Tommy Berry. She looks ready to explode. In her exhibition gallop last Saturday between races she idled up alongside stablemate Prince Fawaz. She is a big strong galloper too. Take the short odds as she should be winning this. Will be one of the stars of the spring.
Dangers: It was hard to get much of a read on 1. Tenley’s two trials, ridden very quietly, but she did work strongly through the line. Worth noting that it was similar to how she trialled before blowing away her rivals in the Pierro Plate. She then towelled up stablemate Exhilarates before wet tracks brought about her undoing in the Slipper and Sires. On good tracks she is undefeated. The best part of her races tends to be her last 100m. 5. Flit was stunning in defeat in the Percy Sykes rocketing to the line. We still really don’t know how good she is but her pedigree suggests she’ll be even better out in trip. 5. Let It Pour was brilliant in the Rosebud against Dawn Passage and Lucicello. Has the fitness edge on most of these. 4. Villami always gave the impression she’d return a smart three-year-old and has trialled well, which is typical of her. 9. Steel Diamond was a stylish winner at the provincials first up and did run third to Bivouac herself on debut.
How to play it: Libertini WIN.
Race 6 – 3:05PM MOSTYN COPPER SHOW COUNTY QUALITY (1200 METRES)
Taking a leap of faith with 6. Cascadian. In a perfect world this would be 1400m, my confidence levels would skyrocket but here is a Group One performed French import in a Group Three with 54kg on his back and Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. The five-year-old has never raced over 1200m but blew his rivals away over 1400m on debut before being beaten as $1.60 favourite behind Mythical Magic at Listed level at start two. Skip forward a couple of runs and at start number five he finished fast to run second in a Group One over the mile when starting $7. The son of New Approach hasn’t raced for a year but loved what we saw from him in his one at Warwick Farm. He really wanted to attack the line. He was slowly away but drawn wide, he’ll settle with the field in front of him anyways. Does he have the quality to pick these horses up over 1200m? Not sure but convinced he wouldn’t have been out of place in the G1 Winx Stakes. Hoping for better odds on the day so monitor the market.
Dangers: 7. Deprive will need some luck navigating a path from the inside draw but he possesses a devastating turn of foot. He has won six from nine and despite getting home in heavy conditions the last time we saw him, he’s even more dynamic on top of the ground. The 60kg is the leveller for 1. Dreamforce. Last preparation he proved himself a genuine Group One horse. He was luckless first up too. The preparation prior to that he rattled home to win from last first up, clocking 33.16s for his last 600m, the fastest splits of the day. 12. Trope is another horse capable of running big late splits. Slow getaways have proved costly in his short career to date and off his trials, it’s still a trait he has to overcome. 13. Baller has trialled impressively and will be in front of many of his trial rivals.
How to play it: Cascadian WIN.
Race 7 – 3:45PM WINX STAKES (1400 METRES)
2. Happy Clapper is one of the best 1400m-milers in the country. Forgiving the blemish at Caulfield two campaigns ago, his run of first up efforts have been outstanding. They include breaking the track record in the Canterbury Stakes over 1300m and six months ago chasing home his familiar foe Winx in the Apollo Stakes. He met her 11 times and finished second in five of them, four at Group One level. Ironically, Hugh Bowman now rides the nine-year-old. The big advantage he looks to possess over his trial rivals, other than being a genuine 1400m horse with a brilliant fresh record, is the way this race maps. Happy Clapper has the tractability to box seat behind 6. Samadoubt and 3. Le Romain. He found himself in front turning into the straight first up last preparation and still slipped home his last 600m in 33.88s (Punters Intelligence). Could have trialled better but he tacked on okay late. Will be primed for this.
Dangers: 1. Avilius is a star, ending last preparation with two comfortable Group One wins. He has won his two first up assignments in Australia, however, both were over a mile and he beat Dagny (in a BM91) and Sikandarabad (in a Group 3). He’ll be out the back and rushing home late but as favourite in a Group One over 1400m with big spring targets out to 2000m, he looks a slight risk. If he wins here, doubt they’ll beat him again this campaign. 10. Verry Elleegant was the dominant filly of the autumn. She has to transfer that to her four-year-old year and there is no hiding here, but she has the quality to give this a shake. Will be allowed to settle where she is happy but the draw should see her midfield, probably a touch worse. 8. Unforgotten was easily held by Happy Clapper in the two occasions they met last preparation but like the way this mare trialled.
How to play it: Happy Clapper WIN.
Race 8 – 4:25PM TOY SHOW QUALITY (1100 METRES)
They will burn along here! 3. Dyslexic ran some outstanding splits to get herself into a winning position first up last campaign behind 1. Alassio and Dixie Blossoms but couldn’t sustain it for the last 200m. That was over 1400m so she shouldn’t have the same issue over 1100m. There were excuses in her three runs thereafter. She was beaten narrowly in the G2 Ajax by mudder Fifty Stars despite not being comfortable in wet ground before that really showed in the Emancipation where she didn’t dash at all in the heavy conditions. In the Queen Of The Turf perhaps the mile saw her out or the two gutbusters took their toll. She will have to be ridden cold from the wide draw but she finds James McDonald as well as her favoured good track. There’s a likelihood that there’ll be a three-wide running line with speed drawn in and out, which would be ideal for her to tag into the race.
Dangers: 4. Mizzy has just one win from 13 starts but is Group placed and ran fourth in two Group Ones last campaign, the Surround and Coolmore. First up last preparation she tackled 1100m at Warwick Farm and fought on bravely to run third behind Fiesta and Estijaab despite being exposed throughout. The manner in which she has trialled behind the likes of Alizee and Sunlight, hitting the line sweetly under no riding from regular jockey Tommy Berry, suggests she has returned in very good order. The Golden Slipper winner 2. Kiamichi has too trialled nicely but she has looked most comfortable on wet tracks and in races she can dictate. She gets neither scenario in this. 12. Into The Abyss will be strong late while don’t want to discount 8. Notation despite being up in grade and back in trip.
How to play it: Dyslexic WIN and Mizzy WIN.
Race 9 – 5:05PM KOGAROO HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
With the lack of speed in this race and the price difference, siding with 7. Prime Candidate over 11. Roheryn. Prime Candidate has won five from seven and was a strong winner last time out having sat outside of the leader. His was the fastest of the 1200m races on the day, ahead of Alizee in the Missile and Haut Brion Her. A lot of that had to do with the slow early speed in the other two races but there was plenty of merit to Prime Candidate’s victory. Particularly his power through the line. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 200m of 11.85s, only a length off the quickest in the race. You’d reason that the tempo of a 1400m race where he can get control and keep grinding away from in front would suit his style even better. He was only second up off a lengthy spell so should come on again. He’ll be in the finish.
Dangers: Terrified of Roheryn. The gelding didn’t do anything on the clock in his winning return, where the luckless Improvement gave him 5.5kg, but Kerrin McEvoy was very soft on him throughout and he was first up off one soft 900m trial. Even more significantly, the wet track didn’t suit him. On the two occasions he has struck dry tracks he has rattled off very fast last 600m splits (one of them being 32.35s in defeat!). Straight out to 1400m. Had import 5. Milk Man pegged as one to back second up over further, just didn’t expect him to rise only 100m in trip. 4. Dealmaker resumes a gelding and should have won first up last campaign over 1400m, albeit in a much easier race. 3. Sweet Deal sprinted very quickly to win last start (11.21s/11.06s home) in a race where the leaders crawled early. Similar set up here.
How to play it: Prime Candidate WIN and SAVE Roheryn.
Tips supplied by Racing NSW.
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.