- GBP/USD has been trading at a high range ahead of parliament's vote on the Brexit deal.
- Political developments and analysts' number-crunching are set to rock sterling.
- Friday's four-hour chart is showing the potential for more gains.
"White smoke in Berlaymont" was one of the tweets announcing a Brexit deal – sending sterling surging – until "black smoke" came out of Belfast. Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed off on a deal with his European counterparts without receiving the blessing of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The pound retreated from the highs near 1.30 and now trades at the 1.28 handle.
What Is In the Deal
The accord officially keeps Northern Ireland (NI) in the UK's customs union but de-facto in the EU's orbit, allowing an open border on the Emerald Isle – essential to keeping the peace. Some of the goods moving from NI to the rest of the UK will be subject to customs. The DUP objects having this customs border in the Irish Sea. The party led by Arlene Foster also opposes the new consent mechanisms for changing these arrangements – which strips unionists of their veto.
For the rest of the UK, it means a cleaner or harder Brexit – depending on one's point of view. Economic estimates pint to a deeper economic …